This weekend’s box office continued to revolve around Spider-Man: Brand New Day, although the gap between Marvel’s latest blockbuster and everyone else has finally started to narrow. The film remained comfortably in first place with $70 million, while The Odyssey, The End of Oak Street, and PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie found themselves in a surprisingly tight race for the remaining podium spots.
Last week’s predictions also proved a little too optimistic for the two major new releases. The End of Oak Street and PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie both opened below their projected ranges, although the latter came much closer to expectations. With another trio of releases arriving next weekend, the box office should finally have a chance to look a little less like the Spider-Man show.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Remains on Top
Spider-Man: Brand New Day earned $70 million in its third weekend.
After opening to an extraordinary $355 million and following that with another $145 million, the film was always going to experience a more substantial drop eventually. Even so, $70 million is an absurdly strong third weekend, particularly when the movie has already been in theatres for two weeks.
The bigger question now is how high the film can climb before audiences move on to the next major event movie. At this point, Brand New Day has already cemented itself as one of the year’s defining theatrical releases, and its ability to maintain this level of interest should give Sony and Marvel plenty to celebrate.
The Odyssey Continues Its Strong Run
The Odyssey brought in $23.2 million.
Christopher Nolan’s epic continues to hold remarkably well despite having the unfortunate distinction of sharing the summer with one of the biggest Spider-Man movies ever made. A $23.2 million weekend in almost any other marketplace would be enough to command considerably more attention.
Instead, The Odyssey has quietly settled into second place and continues to benefit from strong audience interest and premium format screenings. Its legs are proving almost as impressive as its opening, which is exactly what Universal would have wanted from a film built around the theatrical experience.
The End of Oak Street Opens Below Expectations
The End of Oak Street debuted with $21 million.
Last week, the film was tracking between $30 million and $35 million, and I predicted an opening around $32 million that would have comfortably secured second place. Instead, its $21 million debut came in well below both the tracking range and my estimate.
That still makes for a respectable opening, but the result suggests the film didn’t quite generate the urgency needed to break through in a marketplace dominated by Spider-Man and Nolan. Finishing just behind The Odyssey also leaves it with a difficult road ahead if it hopes to turn a decent opening into a substantial theatrical run.
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie Comes Close to Expectations
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie opened with $20.5 million.
Last week, I predicted around $18 million from a tracking range of $15 million to $20 million. The film ultimately landed slightly above both my estimate and the top end of tracking, making this the more successful of the weekend’s two major new releases.
The $20.5 million opening was enough for fourth place, although it came remarkably close to overtaking The End of Oak Street. The dependable PAW Patrol audience clearly showed up, and with younger audiences often providing strong legs, the film could remain competitive over the coming weeks.
Katseye: Wild Hearts Rounds Out the Top Five
Katseye: Wild Hearts earned $4 million.
The concert film rounded out the top five with a relatively modest $4 million. With three films above it earning more than $20 million, there was never much room for anything else to make a significant impact on the weekend.
Next Weekend’s Predictions
Next weekend brings three new releases that could shake up the lower half of the top five. Insidious: Out of the Further is tracking between $23 million and $35 million, and I’m predicting around $28 million. That should be enough to give it a strong second place finish behind Spider-Man: Brand New Day, assuming the horror sequel can convert the franchise’s established audience into opening weekend ticket sales.
Tony is tracking between $7 million and $10 million, with an estimated opening of $8 million. Meanwhile, Spa Weekend is tracking between $5 million and $7 million, although I’m predicting a slightly softer $4 million debut. With the latter two releases targeting narrower audiences, the battle for the final spots in the top five could be considerably more interesting than the fight for first place.
As always, we’ll find out next week.
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