Well, we have a new number one at the box office, and this time my prediction for the weekend was at least partially on the money. Street Fighter opened with $31 million, taking the top spot and landing within my predicted range of $25 million to $40 million. My estimate was $35 million, so I was a little optimistic, but not enough to make me look completely ridiculous. That’s about as much as anyone can ask for in this business.
The bigger story, however, might be You Can See Everything, which pulled in $15 million for second place. I predicted that the movie could easily be enough to claim the number one spot, but Street Fighter ultimately held took the crown. Other Mommy dropped to third with $8.4 million, followed by Whalefall with $8 million and Sense and Sensibility with $7.3 million.
Street Fighter Takes First Place
Street Fighter opened with $31 million, enough to lead the weekend. My prediction was $35 million, putting the actual result just $4 million below my estimate. With tracking suggesting an opening between $25 million and $40 million, the movie landed comfortably within expectations.
The video game franchise has plenty of name recognition, even if it isn’t quite in the same league as the biggest entertainment properties out there. That established audience helped give the film a solid opening, although the next few weekends will tell us whether it has staying power or whether this is mostly a case of fans showing up early.
I’m not going to complain about missing my estimate by $4 million. In box office prediction terms, that’s close enough to take the win and move on before anyone starts asking uncomfortable questions.
You Can See Everything Makes a Strong Expansion
You Can See Everything brought in $15 million, finishing second behind Street Fighter. While the movie didn’t hit my prediction, $15 million is still a meaningful result for a film getting a bigger theatrical footprint; and the movie is set to go to wide release this coming Friday. Which could easily push it to first place.
Wide releases can give movies a second chance to find an audience, particularly when they have been building awareness through a more limited run. The question now is whether the film can hold onto that audience after its expansion.
Other Mommy Drops to Third
Other Mommy earned $8.4 million in its second weekend in the top five, falling from first place after opening with $27.5 million. That’s a considerable drop, but the movie is still attracting audiences and remains ahead of the rest of the holdovers.
Last week, I underestimated its opening by $10.5 million, predicting $17 million against an actual $27.5 million. At least I got the direction right by placing it within the $15 million to $35 million tracking range. Apparently, the movie had a few more tricks up its sleeve than I anticipated.
Whalefall Opens in Fourth
Whalefall opened with $8 million, finishing just behind Other Mommy. My prediction was $9 million, based on a tracking range of $8 million to $15 million. That leaves me just $1 million above the actual result, making this a pretty close call.
I expected the film to land near the lower end of its tracking range, and that’s exactly what happened. Not every movie needs to blow the doors off the box office to meet expectations. Sometimes getting the number right is the entire point, and I’ll happily take that one.
Sense and Sensibility Rounds Out the Top Five
Sense and Sensibility rounded out the top five with $7.3 million. It finished just behind Whalefall, giving us a relatively tight race for the lower spots on the chart.
With Street Fighter and You Can See Everything taking the top two positions, the rest of the weekend was about which films could maintain enough interest to stay competitive.
Next Weekend’s Predictions
Looking ahead, we’ve got four films worth watching: Ali G: Who Iz I?, Clayface, Klara and the Sun, and the continuing question of whether any of them can disrupt the current box office standings. You Can See Everything could easily take first place based on it’s success and its expansion into wide release this coming weekend.
Ali G: Who Iz I? is tracking between $4 million and $10 million. I’m predicting a $5 million opening, largely because awareness and marketing appear limited. A recognizable character can help, but audiences still need to know a movie is coming out before they can decide whether to buy a ticket. I’m expecting a modest start unless it finds a bigger audience than anticipated.
Clayface is tracking between $23 million and $33 million, and I’m going with $28 million. The character has an established connection to the Batman universe, even if Clayface isn’t exactly a household name on the level of the Dark Knight himself. That existing comic book connection should help draw some attention, though the film will need to sell audiences on the character as a leading attraction in his own right.
Then there’s Klara and the Sun, which is tracking between $4 million and $10 million. My prediction is $6 million. Jenna Ortega has become a recognizable name and could help bring some viewers in, but the film doesn’t appear to be getting the kind of major marketing push that would turn it into a breakout hit. I’m expecting a respectable but relatively quiet opening.
As always, we’ll find out next week.
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