This weekend’s box office produced one of the summer’s bigger surprises. Moana sailed into first place, but its $43.1 million debut fell well short of expectations after tracking suggested a considerably stronger opening. Meanwhile, Evil Dead Burn also missed its projected range, proving once again that tracking is an educated guess rather than a guarantee.
On the bright side, holdovers continued to do respectable business. Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 once again demonstrated the value of family audiences, while Young Washington continued to quietly benefit from older moviegoers who are far less concerned about opening weekends.
Moana Opens Below Expectations
Moana debuted with $43.1 million.
Last week, the film was expected to land around $69 million, comfortably within its $57 million to $72 million tracking range. Instead, it opened nearly $26 million below that estimate, making it one of the summer’s more notable misses.
That’s not to say Disney has a disaster on its hands. A $43 million opening would be a dream result for plenty of studios. However, given the strength of the brand and the continued success of family films throughout 2026, expectations were understandably much higher. The coming weeks will reveal whether strong word of mouth can help offset the slower than expected start.
Minions & Monsters Holds Well
Minions & Monsters earned $21.2 million.
Universal’s latest family hit continues to perform exactly as animated films tend to during the summer months. While Moana inevitably siphoned away some younger audiences, the decline remains healthy enough to suggest families are still making room for both films.
Toy Story 5 Continues Its Strong Run
Toy Story 5 collected $19.0 million.
Pixar’s latest has now transitioned into the steady phase of its theatrical run. It may no longer be dominating headlines, but it continues to post impressive numbers several weeks into release. That consistency is ultimately more valuable than chasing a record setting opening weekend.
Evil Dead Burn Falls Short of Projections
Evil Dead Burn opened with $13.7 million.
The horror sequel had been tracking between $25 million and $40 million, with a prediction of roughly $32 million. Instead, it opened well below even the low end of expectations. Horror has enjoyed an exceptional year overall, but not every recognizable franchise is guaranteed to capitalize on that momentum.
Whether mixed audience reception, franchise fatigue, or simple competition played the biggest role remains to be seen, but this has to register as one of the year’s bigger box office disappointments.
Young Washington Continues to Find Its Audience
Young Washington rounded out the top five with $6.9 million.
The historical drama continues to do exactly what adult oriented dramas hope to do: quietly accumulate revenue without relying on splashy openings or social media buzz. It may never dominate the box office, but it has carved out a respectable theatrical run.
Next Weekend’s Predictions
Next weekend belongs to The Odyssey, which is currently tracking for an opening between $80 million and $100 million. Early interest appears especially strong for premium large format screenings, with IMAX and other premium auditoriums driving much of the advance ticket sales. At the moment, an $87 million debut feels like the safest prediction.
That said, this remains one of the more difficult films to forecast this summer. Reviews remain under embargo until July 15, meaning general audiences have yet to hear whether Christopher Nolan’s latest lives up to the hype. If reactions are overwhelmingly positive, the film could easily climb toward the top of its projected range. Until then, hedging toward the middle feels like the smart play.
As always, we’ll find out next week.
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